The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), launched by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in May 2025, is gaining ground in the Kenyan political scene if a new survey is anything to go by.
TIFA Research released the numbers on Thursday, revealing a rapid ascent for the DCP, with its support jumping from 6% in November 2025 to 16% in May 2026, making it one of the country’s fastest-growing political parties.
In contrast, the poll illustrates a waning influence for the traditional political titans, ODM and UDA, when compared to their dominance during the 2022 general election.
Support for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which celebrated its 20th anniversary in November 2025, has dropped to 18%, a significant decline from its 32% standing in August 2022. While this represents a slight recovery from a low of 13% in late 2025, the party still struggles to reclaim its former reach.
Notably, the political landscape within ODM shows a clear divide, with a significant majority of supporters favoring the Linda Mwananchi faction over the Linda Ground group led by party leader Oburu Oginga. According to the TIFA poll, 73% of ODM supporters back the faction led by embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.
In contrast, the Linda Ground faction commands the loyalty of only 24% of the party membership, while a small 3% of supporters remain undecided.
TIFA Research notes that these figures reflect a desire for a more autonomous political identity,
“ODM supporters appear to favor a more independent, people-centered opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government. The strong backing for the ‘Linda Mwananchi’ faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable.”
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has faced an even steeper decline. After enjoying 38% support during the last election cycle, President William Ruto’s party now sits at 17%. TIFA researchers suggest these figures reflect a shifting landscape defined by voter fatigue, changing loyalties, and a sense of growing uncertainty as the next election cycle approaches.
The pollster captured this shift, stating: “The findings suggest a significant decline in support for both ODM and UDA compared to their August 2022 levels, highlighting possible voter fatigue, shifting political loyalties, and growing uncertainty within the political landscape.”
The rise of the Democratic Change Party (DCP) has remained surprisingly consistent over the last eight months, climbing from 9% in September 2025 to 16% in May this year.
The poll also shows that the Jubilee Party is making modest gains, with its support rising from 3% in September 2025 to a steady 11% in both November 2025 and May 2026.
Similarly, the Wiper Party saw its standing improve from 4% in late 2025 to 9% in May 2026. These shifts suggest a renewed wave of activity and interest among smaller, opposition-aligned parties as the political landscape continues to evolve.
Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters remains significantly high. Those who identified as undecided or reported no party preference stood at 23 per cent in May 2026. While this marks a decrease from the 43 percent recorded in September 2025, it still represents a sizeable bloc that could shift future political alignments.
Support for smaller parties, such as DAP-Kenya and Ford Kenya, remained largely stagnant at approximately 1 percent. In contrast, the “Other” category fluctuated between 4 and 10 percent throughout the various survey periods.
According to the pollster, the study utilized a nationally representative sample to ensure accurate data.
“The results provide a credible snapshot of current public sentiment and emerging national trends.”
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