A new national survey has put a spotlight on the emerging battle to shape Kenya’s opposition presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 General Election, with the results revealing a surprisingly competitive field with no single combination running away with the race.
The poll, released by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) on Thursday, May 14, 2026, shows that opposition supporters currently favour a presidential pairing of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna above all other combinations tested.
Twenty-eight percent of respondents who back opposition candidates chose the Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket as their preferred option, a finding that will likely strengthen Sifuna’s hand as he positions himself as a serious player in the 2027 contest.
A Three-Way Battle at the Top
The Kalonzo-Sifuna pairing may lead the pack, but the margin over its closest rivals is narrow enough to keep the race wide open. A ticket featuring former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua alongside Kalonzo Musyoka came in second with 25% support, a strong showing that confirms Gachagua retains significant political capital despite his dramatic removal from the deputy presidency.
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Notably, the TIFA report points out that a pairing of Kalonzo Musyoka and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i actually holds a slight edge over the Kalonzo-Sifuna combination among a segment of opposition supporters – an indication that Matiang’i’s growing profile continues to complicate what might otherwise look like a straightforward picture.
“Among Opposition candidate supporters, the combination of Kalonzo and Matiangi attracts slightly more support than that of Kalonzo and Sifuna. How much influence public opinion will have in this selection process remains to be seen,” the report indicated.
Further down the rankings, a Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua ticket attracted 4% support, suggesting that while Karua retains name recognition, her pairing with Kalonzo has not yet generated meaningful momentum among opposition voters.
Uncertainty Still Runs Deep
The poll also captures a significant block of undecided or dissatisfied sentiment within the opposition camp. Nine percent of respondents rejected all the proposed pairings outright, while a further 3% remained genuinely unsure of their preference. Together, those figures suggest that more than one in ten opposition supporters have yet to find a ticket they can rally behind, a pool of persuadable voters that any combination will be eager to win over.
TIFA was measured in its conclusions, noting that while these figures offer a valuable snapshot of current preferences, it remains to be seen how much this public opinion will actually influence the final selection process for the 2027 General Election.
Coalition negotiations, political dealmaking, and the shifting fortunes of individual leaders will all play a role in determining who ultimately ends up on the ballot.
What the Numbers Mean
One thread runs clearly through all the leading combinations: Kalonzo Musyoka’s name appears in every top-performing ticket. That consistency points to his continued standing as the indispensable figure in any credible opposition alliance, the candidate other leaders must negotiate with, rather than around, if they want to mount a serious challenge to President Ruto in 2027.
For Sifuna, the poll delivers a notable boost. Being identified as the most popular running mate choice ahead of more established figures signals that his profile is rising at precisely the right moment in the election cycle. Whether that translates into an actual spot on the ticket remains an open question, but the numbers give him real leverage in the conversations ahead.
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