The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) has advised citizens to prepare for a significant shift in weather patterns as the country transitions into the 2026 March-April-May (MAM) long rains season.
In its latest monthly forecast, the department predicts that a vast majority of the country, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Highlands on both sides of the Rift, and the South Coast, will receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Forecasters expect the most intense downpours to occur during the first two weeks of March before the intensity tapers off toward the end of the month.
Weather experts identify March as the official kickoff for the MAM season, which traditionally hits its stride in the following month.
“March serves as the official onset of the MAM season, leading into April, which is anticipated to be the climatic peak. During this period, isolated heavy rainfall events may occur nationwide. While the season is expected to conclude for most parts of the country by late May,” the Kenya Met stated.
Regional Breakdown: Who Should Expect the Heaviest Rain?
The forecast highlights specific regions where residents should remain vigilant for potential flash floods and heavy storms during the first 15 days of the month:
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Central Highlands and Nairobi: Counties such as Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Nairobi are set for near-average to above-average rainfall.
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Western and Rift Valley: Regions including Kakamega, Bungoma, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Kericho, Kisumu, and Narok will likely see frequent heavy showers throughout the first half of March.
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Southern Lowlands: Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, and Taita-Taveta are also on the list for enhanced rainfall.
Coastal and Northern Outlook
The transition arrives at different times for the coastal strip. While Mombasa and Kwale should expect near-average to above-average rain early in the month, the North Coast may have to wait a bit longer.
“Intermittent rainfall, which may occasionally be heavy, is expected during the first half of the month. Rainfall onsets for the North Coast are likely to occur from the 4th week of March to the first week of April,” Kenya Met stated.
In the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), Turkana and Samburu are surprisingly slated for near-average to above-average rainfall. Meanwhile, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo will likely see near-average totals, providing much-needed relief to these pastoral regions.
As the country enters this wet phase, authorities urge the public to monitor local weather updates closely. The predicted “isolated heavy rainfall events” can lead to sudden infrastructure challenges and transport disruptions, particularly in urban centers like Nairobi and Mombasa.
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