A major climate pattern is reshaping Kenya’s weather, driving unexpected heat and prolonged dry spells across several regions. Contrary to popular belief, this shift is already underway rather than looming on the horizon.
Climate scientist Hannah Kimani, head of the Public Weather Services Section at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), clarified the nature of the phenomenon during the 5th edition of the Annual Journalists Climate Training (AJCT 5), hosted by Power Shift Africa in Kigali, Rwanda. She stressed that people often misunderstand what this warming cycle actually entails.
“El Niño is not coming; El Niño is already here with us. El Niño is not rainfall, as most Kenyans believe. It basically changes the patterns in the whole world. In Kenya, it is associated with depressed rainfall or below-average rainfall over the western half of the country and the North Rift,” she said.
Understanding the Climate Phenomenon
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This shift alters global atmospheric circulation, disturbing normal rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.
Between June and September, western Kenya and the North Rift typically receive steady rains as a continuation of the March–May season. This year, however, the region suffered through prolonged dry spells and below-average precipitation.
The impacts extend well beyond rainfall. Kimani pointed out that the current cycle has altered temperature norms, bringing unusually hot weather during periods that traditionally mark the country’s cold season. Central Kenya and Nairobi usually experience chilly weather from June through August, yet this year brought bouts of extreme warmth.
“El Niño will not stop seasons from happening; it will slightly alter them. We still had cold conditions from June because we are still in the cold season, but because of El Niño we have had extremely warm days,” she added.
What to Expect for the Year-End Rains
As Kenya moves into the October-November-December rainy period, the Pacific warming trend typically intensifies, often driving higher rainfall totals across East Africa. However, meteorologists advise against assuming that an above-normal seasonal forecast guarantees relentless downpours or severe flooding.
“El Niño or above-average rainfall doesn’t mean that it is going to be raining all the time. You can still have some days that are dry even when you’re having El Niño-driven rains.”
Kenya naturally receives rainfall between October and December regardless of Pacific Ocean temperatures. The phenomenon simply acts as an amplifier or suppressor, depending on how it interacts with other local and global climate systems.
Multiple Factors Shape East Africa’s Weather
KMSA experts caution against attributing extreme weather events solely to a single driver, noting that predicting widespread flooding requires looking at the broader picture.
“I think it would be wrong for someone to say that El Niño is coming or that we are having a strong El Niño; therefore, we are going to have disastrous floods. This is not scientifically a safe conclusion because we need to look at other factors that actually lead to the torrential rains,” Kimani said.
Several overlapping systems shape Kenya’s climate, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and tropical cyclones.
The Indian Ocean Dipole plays an exceptionally strong role. A positive IOD occurs when sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, close to the East African coast, rise above average while waters near Australia cool down. This gradient pushes moisture-laden winds toward East Africa, where the warm coastal waters fuel heavy cloud formation and bring heavy rain.
Local weather history demonstrates how these complex systems interact. During the March-April-May 2026 season, Kenya experienced enhanced rainfall across the country even without an active El Niño phase, proving that East African weather patterns rely on a delicate balance of multiple ocean and atmospheric conditions.
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