Meteorologists are urging Kenyans to prepare for an early arrival of unusually heavy rainfall, warning that the upcoming October-November-December (OND) 2026 rainy season could bring significant downpours across the country.
Weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū noted that signs of the upcoming wet spell are growing clearer, with pre-seasonal rains expected to hit parts of Kenya as early as September. According to Maithya, August multi-model super-ensemble forecasts point toward an early onset of pre-seasonal rains, particularly in northeastern Kenya and the coastal strip. He added that similar rainfall patterns will likely affect Somalia, Somaliland, and northern Tanzania’s coastal strip during September.
Maithya identified rain bands forming over eastern Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia as a primary indicator for tracking the start of the OND season.
“One of the key parameters that we use to know when the OND rainy season will begin is the consistent emergence of rain bands in Eastern Ethiopia, Somali Land & Somalia,” Maithya said.
“The August multi-model super-ensemble runs are out, and it’s now clearer than ever before that there will be an early onset of pre-seasonal rains this time round, particularly in Somalia, Northeastern KE & the Kenyan Coastal Strip in Sept 2026.”
These emerging rain bands signal major atmospheric changes, including shifts in wind patterns over the Indian Ocean.
“These bands normally indicate a southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the Sahel & Ethiopian highlands into Equatorial Africa, including KE. They also signify a change in the direction and strength of the Indian Ocean trade winds, bringing to an end the West Indian Ocean monsoon. Tropical disturbances in the Indian Ocean are also something to watch,” he explained.
Maithya warned that the anticipated September rains could gather intensity rapidly before spreading across the rest of Kenya by early October. The wet conditions could then persist throughout the OND season and extend into January 2027, bringing prolonged rainfall to several parts of the country.
The warning comes amid growing concerns over the combined influence of a strong El Niño pattern and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Global forecasting models project above-average rainfall for September, with totals in key regions potentially exceeding long-term averages by up to 20 millimeters.
Maithya cautioned that these conditions pose severe risks when paired with existing global climate phenomena.
“These rains are coming at a time when a record-breaking strong El Nino is firmly established in the Equatorial Pacific and the IOD is entering a positive phase, meaning they could easily turn into a catastrophe,” he said.
This dangerous climate combination significantly elevates the risk of widespread flooding and severe weather disruptions. While short-range and sub-seasonal forecasts will offer clearer details on timing and intensity in the coming weeks, experts urge Kenyans to monitor regular weather updates closely as preparations for the 2026 OND rainy season get underway.
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