Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has put forward a hypothetical scenario in which President William Ruto could win re-election in the 2027 General Election even if he fails to secure the Mt Kenya vote that helped drive his 2022 victory.
In the 2022 election, Ruto garnered about 2.9 million votes, roughly 40% of his national total of 7.17 million, from the region’s 10 counties. However, support in the area has seemingly weakened after the controversial impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in 2024.
Moses Kuria pointed to the July Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election as an example. In that contest, Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah received about 13% of the valid votes cast, finishing second with 5,450 votes. Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate, Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru, won with 35,440 votes.
Speaking on Citizen TV on Sunday night, Kuria argued that if the President were to achieve a similar 13% vote share from Mt Kenya in the 2027 presidential election, it would still be sufficient for a second term.
“If the president gets 13 percent of Mt. Kenya, it’s a very big win for him. It’s a very big win; it’s a bonus. It’s more than he needs,” he said.
Based on that scenario, Kuria said Ruto could theoretically win re-election even without a single vote from Mt. Kenya.
“So if he wins only 13 per cent that he won in Ol Kalou, it can only be a bonus,” he asserted.
Kuria added that the president’s advantage, in his view, comes from contesting what he described as opposition strongholds and battleground areas. He said Kenya’s presidential elections are shaped by eight voting blocs.
According to Kuria, Ruto already has reliable support in four regions: Coast, North Eastern, Luo Nyanza, and a combination of Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana and Samburu communities, together accounting for about 10.2 million votes. He said the likelihood of Ruto losing votes from those regions is “very low”.
The former CS then pointed to two additional blocs that could deliver support among the remaining four regions and bring Ruto’s total close to that of the opposition. He identified these as Lower Eastern and Mt Kenya West, comprising Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua and parts of Laikipia, which, together with the Gusii region, he estimated would generate 9.7 million votes.
“So between these two blocs, we’ve got a difference of 500,000 votes only (between the government and the opposition). In terms of statistical politics, it’s a tie; it’s a dead heat,” he said.
Kuria said the deciding blocs, which he likened to the swing states Ohio and Iowa in US elections, would be Western Kenya and Mt Kenya East, comprising Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Embu.
“So, it boils down to that,” he added, arguing that Ruto’s four voting blocs are “very solid.”
Moses Kuria Calls United Opposition “A House Built on Sand”
Kuria also dismissed the idea of a united opposition, describing it as a house built on sand.
He argued that opposition principals are likely to disagree before the 2027 General Election, which could split their support and create an opening for Ruto. Kuria pointed to comments made by MPs aligned to former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i over the weekend, saying they would back Ruto if Matiang’i was not selected as the opposition’s presidential flagbearer – an early sign, he said, of internal divisions.
“And then, there are people who are saying that more loudly by not saying it, the Kalonzo base. That’s what they are saying,” he added.
Kuria further argued that, in his view, only voters in Mt Kenya West are genuinely committed to removing Ruto from office. He said supporters from Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s Eastern base and those drawn from Matiang’i’s political backyard support the opposition mainly because it gives their leaders a chance to win the presidency.
“It’s not out of conviction. Maybe they are convinced, but it’s not something to die for for them,” he said.
He also challenged the assumption that any single region or community holds a majority of Kenya’s 24.45 million registered voters. Kuria said even the populous Mt Kenya region has only about six million registered voters, meaning it represents roughly 25% of the total. He argued that this makes it a mistake for any politician to rely on one region alone to win a presidential election.
“Kenya is a country of ethnic minorities. No one community is a majority. The highest, six million, sounds big, but it’s only 25 percent. It’s a fallacy, it’s a quarter, so 75 per cent are not there. So it’s really walking on a banana skin, it’s sliding. It can go down south any time,” he said, adding that counting on a single bloc is risky because support can shift quickly.
Kuria said more realignments are likely ahead of the August 10, 2027, General Election. He said the next year will show whether Mt Kenya voters begin to see things differently, adding that any change will be driven by battles within the opposition.
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