The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has issued an early warning about the expected El Niño, cautioning that Kenya may shift from mid-year dry conditions to heavier rainfall and possible flooding later in the year.
In a statement dated June 9, the weather agency said global climate models show an 80–82 percent chance that El Niño will develop during the June–August period. It added that the odds increase to about 90–96 percent that the event will continue through the end of 2026.
KMSA said the anticipated conditions are likely to be moderate and could strengthen further.
“Kenya Meteorological Department is closely monitoring global forecasts indicating the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the country. Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong,” KMSA stated.
It also noted that forecasts may change as new climate data becomes available but said the June–August 2026 outlook currently stands at an 80–82 percent likelihood for El Niño, with probabilities reaching near 90–96 percent for it to persist to the end of the year. The authority added that the phenomenon typically produces different effects across Kenya and the wider East Africa region.
The department said the forecast could put Kenya on a split climate path, with El Niño effects expected to differ sharply from season to season.
For the June–July–August period, it expects most of the country to record near-average to below-average rainfall. It singled out areas including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya as likely to receive less rain than usual.
It added that other parts of the country, especially much of the southeast and northeast, are expected to stay mostly sunny and dry, with temperatures running warmer than average across many locations.
KMSA said the Coast should receive near-average to slightly above-average rainfall. It also indicated that Nairobi and the surrounding highlands may see intermittent cool, cloudy weather, along with light rainfall at times.
Despite the drier outlook for mid-year, the authority cautioned that conditions may change in the October–November–December season, when El Niño often brings increased rainfall across Kenya.
During this period, KMSA said Kenya could see increased rainfall, which would raise the risk of flooding, damage to infrastructure, and disruptions to agriculture and transport.
The weather agency added that the outcome may also depend on the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral but could turn positive later in the year. It noted that El Niño combined with a positive IOD often brings stronger rainfall across East Africa.
“It is important to note that the influence of El Niño does not occur in isolation. KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” the statement said.
Following the outlook, KMSA urged the public, county governments, and disaster response agencies to remain vigilant and to rely on official updates as the forecasts are updated.
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