Kenya’s weather experts are advising farmers to prepare for a brief pause in the current rains starting late next week.
Edward Muriuki, the acting director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, explained that a shifting tropical weather system called the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moving into a new phase. This shift will temporarily block cloud formation and cut off rainfall across the country.
“Rainfall is likely to be enhanced over much of the country during the first half of March. Dry spells are expected to occur during the second half of the month when the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to be in unfavorable phases,” Muriuki said.
The MJO, a moving band of clouds, rain, and wind that travels eastward along the equator, heavily influences the timing and intensity of the March–April–May season. Tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean also play a major role in these patterns.
Muriuki noted that the rains will resume at the end of March. By April, the entire country should see heavy downpours as the “long rains” season hits its peak.
According to Muriuki, the rainy season will wind down for most of the country toward the end of May.
“April is anticipated to be the climactic peak. During this period, isolated heavy rainfall events may occur nationwide. While the season is expected to conclude for most parts of the country by late May, the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the central Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the coastal region are notable exceptions. In these areas, rainfall is likely to extend well into June,” he said.
Regional Forecasts
The weather patterns will vary significantly across different zones:
North-Eastern Counties: Forecasters expect near-average rainfall for Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo. These areas should see scattered showers in early March, with the main rains arriving by the first or second week of April.
Temperature Trends: Most of the country will likely face warmer-than-average temperatures. The coast and northeastern Kenya should prepare for particularly high heat.
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